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KBRA Affirms AAA Rating for Peninsula Corridor Joint Powers Board (CA) Sales Tax Revenue Bonds

22 Jan 2026   |   New York

Contacts

KBRA affirms the long-term rating of AAA with a Stable Outlook for the Peninsula Corridor Joint Powers Board (JPB) Sales Tax Revenue Bonds. JPB operates Caltrain, a single-asset commuter rail system that provides high frequency service from San Francisco to San Jose, with limited service onward to the City of Gilroy. Operated by JPB since 1992, the rail system traverses Silicon Valley and serves a three-county service area with a combined population of 3.5 million.

Key Credit Considerations

The rating was affirmed because of the following key credit considerations:

Credit Positives

  • Measure RR sales tax revenues provide ample coverage of sales tax bond maximum annual debt service and provide a substantial source of recurring financial support for capital and operations through FY 2051.
  • Favorable long-term demographic trends including high wealth and income metrics are supportive of growth and stability of sales tax revenues.
  • Limited potential for additional sales tax secured borrowing given strong ABT and Caltrain’s reliance on excess sales tax revenues for operations.

Credit Challenges

  • Sales tax revenues are sensitive to economic cycles and have experienced some volatility following onset of the pandemic.

Rating Sensitivities

For Upgrade

  • Not applicable given the AAA rating level.

For Downgrade

  • A significant decline in debt service coverage due to very large increases in sales tax bond leverage accompanied by significant and prolonged deterioration in the sales tax base.

To access ratings and relevant documents, click here.

Methodologies

Disclosures

A description of all substantially material sources that were used to prepare the credit rating and information on the methodology(ies) (inclusive of any material models and sensitivity analyses of the relevant key rating assumptions, as applicable) used in determining the credit rating is available in the Information Disclosure Form(s) located here.

Information on the meaning of each rating category can be located here.

Further disclosures relating to this rating action are available in the Information Disclosure Form(s) referenced above. Additional information regarding KBRA policies, methodologies, rating scales and disclosures are available at www.kbra.com.

About KBRA

Kroll Bond Rating Agency, LLC (KBRA), one of the major credit rating agencies (CRA), is a full-service CRA registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as an NRSRO. Kroll Bond Rating Agency Europe Limited is registered as a CRA with the European Securities and Markets Authority. Kroll Bond Rating Agency UK Limited is registered as a CRA with the UK Financial Conduct Authority. In addition, KBRA is designated as a Designated Rating Organization (DRO) by the Ontario Securities Commission for issuers of asset-backed securities to file a short form prospectus or shelf prospectus. KBRA is also recognized as a Qualified Rating Agency by Taiwan’s Financial Supervisory Commission and is recognized by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners as a Credit Rating Provider (CRP) in the U.S.

Doc ID: 1013173