KBRA Releases Monthly CMBS Trend Watch

KBRA releases the September 2025 issue of CMBS Trend Watch.

CMBS private label issuance continued at a healthy pace in September as 20 deals priced ($13.8 billion). For Q3, there were 54 deals ($33.1 billion), including 40 single-borrower (SB) ($24 billion), 13 conduit ($9 billion), and one small balance commercial (SC) ($165 million) deal. Through September on a year-to-date (YTD) year-over-year (YoY) comparison, issuance increased 26.2%. Historically, the fourth quarter is typically the year’s busiest quarter, and this year seems no different based on our current pipeline. Furthermore, with the Federal Reserve signaling that two more rate cuts could come by the end of 2025, on top of its first rate cut of 25 basis points (bps) in 2025, the market is poised for continued growth. However, if the government shutdown drags on, it could bring uncertainty and volatility to the markets, which could temper this momentum. Based on our current visibility, up to 20 deals could launch in October, including 10 SB, six conduit, three commercial real estate (CRE) collateralized loan obligations (CLO), and one Freddie Mac (Agency).

In September, KBRA published pre-sales for 13 deals ($10.4 billion), including six SB ($5 billion), three conduits ($2.2 billion), two Agency ($2.3 billion), one SC ($469.3 million), and one CRE CLO (CL) ($451.6 million). September’s surveillance activity included rating reviews of 463 securities issued in connection with 40 transactions, including 28 conduits, six Agency, two SBs, two CRE CLOs, one large loan (LL), and one SC. Of the 463 ratings, 396 were affirmed (85.5%) and 67 were downgraded (14.5%). In addition, 29 ratings were placed on Watch Downgrade.

This month's edition also highlights recent KBRA research publications that cover various topical issues.

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Recent Publications