The U.S. private-label CMBS loan distress rate entered double-digit territory in January 2026. However, although the distress rate, which includes both loans 30+ days delinquent and those that are current but specially serviced, continues to rise, the pace of increase has moderated. From January 2024 to January 2025, the distress rate climbed 250 basis points (bps) to 9.7% from 7.2%. In the following 12 months, the rate increased only 70 bps to 10.4% as of January 2026 (see Figure 1).
As the Federal Reserve continued its easing policy in 2025, declining borrowing costs and stabilizing fundamentals contributed to strong new issuance and gradually improving refinancing conditions in 2025 and early 2026. While these factors, as well as loan resolutions, may have contributed to lower distress rate growth, there continues to be a wide disparity in credit performance across metropolitan areas.
In this report, we analyze the magnitude and change in distress rates by property type nationally…
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