KCP News & Research

KCP Credit Alert: Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas Mall?
The Fashion Show Mall (LV 2024-SHOW) in Las Vegas faces notable exposure to Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus, two of the five anchor tenants at the 1.7 million-sf collateral securing the $850 million loan. The brands’ parent company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on January 13, as covered by a KCP special report. While the two anchors don’t represent a significant portion of mall base rent, with Neiman Marcus accounting for 1.3% and Saks Fifth Avenue only paying common area maintenance, they comprise 20% of the collateral square footage and could potentially trigger co-tenancy provisions if they vacate. At issuance, tenants representing approximately 46% of base rent had co-tenancy provisions related to occupancy triggers.

KCP Insights: Retail Closures and Chapter 11 Bankruptcies
The final numbers are in, and 2025 was a banner year for commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) issuance. Private label volume totaled $125.8 billion, the highest level since the global financial crisis, representing an 18.6% year-over-year increase. Growth was driven largely by strong investor demand for single-borrower (SB) deals, which totaled $91.1 billion and represented 72.5% of issuance, with the remainder coming from conduits. Commercial real estate (CRE) collateralized loan obligation (CLO) issuance also increased sharply, finishing the year at $30.6 billion, about 3.5x the 2024 total.
Looking ahead to 2026, issuance is expected to maintain this strong momentum. KBRA forecasts private label CRE securitization volume to reach $143 billion, comprising $38 billion of conduit issuance and $105 billion of SB. CRE CLO issuance is projected to reach $40 billion.

KBRA Credit Profile (KCP) Loss Lookback: December 2025
During the December 2025 remittance period, 11 assets within the KCP coverage universe were resolved with a loss greater than 2% of the unpaid principal balance (UPB). The assets had an aggregate principal balance of $352.4 million and served as collateral in 11 CMBS transactions. Total realized losses of $114.7 million in December represented a 26% decline from November 2025 and were 33% below the trailing 12-month (TTM) average.
The December resolution volume totaled $352.4 million, representing a 34% increase from the prior month ($262.4 million) and a 26% increase from the TTM average of $279.6 million. Realized losses of $114.7 million were 33% down from the TTM average of $170.7 million. The weighted average (WA) loss severity declined to 32.5% in December, down from 59.2% in November and the TTM average of 61.1%. Time to resolution ranged from six to 61 months across the assets resolved in December and averaged 16 months on a weighted basis compared to the WA resolution time of 50 months in November. The historical average time to resolution has been 38 months since KCP began formally tracking liquidations in 2017. When isolating deals issued from 2010 onward, average resolution time drops to 32 months.

KCP Special Report: Francesca’s Final Frontier - Default and Store Closures
In mid-January, Houston-based women’s fashion retailer Francesca’s announced plans to close all of its stores and liquidate inventory. At the time of the announcement, the company operated approximately 450 locations across 45 U.S. states. KBRA Credit Profile (KCP), a division of KBRA Analytics, reviewed its commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) coverage and identified exposure to Francesca’s at 114 properties securing 106 loans—totaling $21.9 billion by allocated loan amount—across 212 transactions.

Borrower Explores Exit Options for Chicago Office Tower
Blackstone is reportedly exploring a sale of its interest in Willis Tower (BBCMS 2018-TALL) and has approached investors regarding an assumption of the $1.3 billion loan. The sponsor acquired the 3.8 million sf Class A office tower in 2015 for $1.3 billion ($344/sf) and has invested approximately $670 million ($177/sf) in renovations. The loan was modified in March 2025 to extend final maturity to March 2030. As of September 2025, the property was 84% occupied with annualized NCF of $131.9 million, up 17% from December 2024 but 3% below issuance expectations.

KCP Credit Alert: Japantown Office Struggles to Clear Maturity Hurdle
The $33.1 million West LA Office - 1950 Sawtelle Boulevard loan (JPMCC 2016-JP3, MSBAM 2016-C30, CGCMT 2016-P5) failed to pay off at its January 2026 scheduled maturity date. The collateral is a 107,000-sf office building in the Sawtelle Japantown neighborhood of Los Angeles. Servicer commentary indicated the sponsor was seeking takeout financing, though loan proceeds are anticipated to fall short of the outstanding loan balance. Occupancy was most recently reported at 43% as of June 2025, with KCP research indicating approximately 83% of the space currently marketed for lease.

KCP Credit Alert: Right-Sizing Pays Off: CMBS Retail Loan Lands Long-Term Tenancy Win
TJ Maxx executed a lease modification reducing its footprint but extending its lease to 2036, while HomeGoods was added as a new long-term tenant. The updates improve rollover risk at the Great Southern Shopping Center (BANK 2018-BN14) which secures a $34.2 million CMBS loan.

KCP Credit Alert: NYT 2019-NYT Valuation Reset to $635MM
The 738,385-sf office and retail condominium serving as collateral for the New York Times Building loan (NYT 2019-NYT) was appraised at $635 million ($860/sf) as of January 2026, in line with KCP’s concluded value and representing a 37% decline from the $1.01 billion ($1,368/sf) appraisal at securitization. The $515 million senior loan transferred to special servicing in November ahead of maturity default in December 2025. KCP has highlighted expected volatility in future performance as the PILOT agreement expires in December 2032, at which point the borrower will be required to pay full, unabated real estate taxes. There is an additional $235 million in debt held outside the trust.

KCP Credit Alert: Major Tenant to Relocate Dallas HQ
AT&T announced plans to relocate its global headquarters from the 965,800 sf, class A office tower securing the $131.5 million One AT&T loan (BANK 2019-BN16, MSC 2019-L2) to a new corporate campus in Plano, TX, with partial occupancy targeted for late 2028. The subject property resides in the Dallas CBD and is fully leased to AT&T under a NNN lease, guaranteed by AT&T Inc., that expires in December 2031. The property had undergone approximately $18.0 million of capital improvements completed between 2016 and loan origination.

KCP Credit Alert: Appraisal Value Cut for Tampa Office
An updated appraisal for Intellicenter (COMM 2015-CR27) pegged its current value at $20.4 million ($100/sf), which is in-line with KCP's concluded value going back 12 months. The collateral is a 203,509-sf suburban office property in Tampa, FL, located within the Tampa Telecom Park along the Interstate 75 corridor. The $29.3 million loan transferred to special servicing in July 2025 due to imminent monetary default and failed to pay off at maturity in October 2025.